Case-in-point: Significant excitement about a first-in-class biologic for asthma treatment. While there is a high unmet need and the asthma market size is large, the first-in-class biologic therapy is unlikely to be the first-line treatment for asthma, primarily for two reasons: a) the medical treatment algorithm might call for much simpler intervention as the first-line of treatment b) price watchdogs may stipulate cost-effective options as the first-line treatment.
Similarly, a novel cancer therapy, while it may be groundbreaking, may not become the first line treatment. E.g. the market size for prostate cancer might be huge but a 3rd line treatment entry, would make the market size much smaller, despite significant unmet needs. A good practice is to identify the right market segment, estimate the market size and then address the competitive landscapes in that market/segment.
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